IMF predicts interest rates squeezing mortgage holders won’t start to fall until 2028 - Annetts & Orchard (2024)

11/12/23

IMF predicts interest rates squeezing mortgage holders won’t start to fall until 2028 - Annetts & Orchard (1)

After more than a decade of historically low interest rates, the Bank of England (BoE) has repeatedly raised the base rate since late 2021 in a bid to control inflation.

This has squeezed the budgets of many homeowners who have seen their mortgage repayments increase when their current deal has come to an end.

While the BoE held the base rate at 5.25% in September, this is still the highest level since the financial crisis in 2008. And, according to a recent report by BBC News, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast that interest rates in the UK won’t start to fall until 2028.

Read on to find out how this prediction could affect you as a homeowner and discover how to reduce costs by securing a mortgage deal that suits your circ*mstances.

UK interest rates could remain high for a long time

The IMF is an international organisation with 190 member countries. It aims to monitor, support and stabilise the global economy. In times of crisis, countries may turn to the IMF for financial assistance. It typically publishes two economic forecasts every year.

The most recent IMF forecast, published in October, predicted that BoE rates would peak at 6% and remain at around 5% until 2028.

This is the highest rate of interest since the financial crisis in 2008.

The reason the BoE has increased the base rate is to control inflation which, according to data from the Office for National Statistics, was 6.7% in the 12 months to September 2023.

Higher interest rates make both borrowing, and spending on goods and services, more expensive. As people spend less, costs typically rise more slowly due to less demand. This in turn can lower inflation.

How interest rates affect your mortgage repayments

If you’re a homeowner who has enjoyed interest rates and mortgage repayments at record lows in recent years, you could face higher monthly mortgage repayments when your current rate comes to an end.

This is because higher interest rates make borrowing the same amount of money more expensive.

When your fixed-rate deal ends, you’ll usually move onto your mortgage provider’s standard variable rate (SVR), which is generally guided by the BoE’s base rate.

This is likely to result in higher monthly mortgage repayments and a greater total cost of borrowing compared to your current deal.

Even if you find an alternative mortgage deal, “higher for longer” interest rates as the IMF predicts will mean that your repayments will likely be more expensive than they have been in recent years.

Securing the right mortgage deal could reduce costs

Finding the right mortgage deal for your circ*mstances could save you a significant sum each month. The following steps may help you to secure a deal that meets your needs:

1. Decide what type of mortgage you want

First of all, make sure that you understand the types of mortgages available and which one best suits your needs. Do you want an interest-only mortgage, or would you rather pay off some of the capital each month with a repayment mortgage? Are you looking for a fixed-rate or a variable-rate mortgage?

If you’re not clear about the differences between the various mortgage types, speak to a mortgage broker who can explain this to you.

2. Do your research

Once you have a good idea of what kind of deal you’re after, take the time to shop around or ask a mortgage broker to do so on your behalf. They’ll know the full details of lenders’ criteria so they can match you up with a deal that meets your specific needs.

A key consideration when looking for a mortgage is what type of deal to go for. For example, if you choose a fixed rate, your monthly repayments will remain the same until the end of the term, regardless of interest rate changes.

This can benefit you if you’re looking for stability or if interest rates were to continue to rise. However, if they fall then you won’t benefit from these lower rates.

3. Start early

If you don’t make new arrangements, your mortgage is likely to revert to your lender’s SVR when your deal ends. This could see your repayments rise sharply.

Many mortgage offers are valid for six months, so start shopping around a few months before your existing deal ends. This can help you to put a new deal in place in plenty of time, ensuring you don’t pay more than you need to.

Contact us if you have questions about your mortgage

If you’d like to better understand the types of mortgages available and what kind of deal could suit your needs, please contact us.

Please note:

This blog is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on a mortgage or other loans secured on it.

Think carefully before securing other debts against your home.

IMF predicts interest rates squeezing mortgage holders won’t start to fall until 2028 - Annetts & Orchard (2024)

FAQs

IMF predicts interest rates squeezing mortgage holders won’t start to fall until 2028 - Annetts & Orchard? ›

IMF predicts interest rates squeezing mortgage holders won't start to fall until 2028. After more than a decade of historically low interest rates, the Bank of England (BoE) has repeatedly raised the base rate since late 2021 in a bid to control inflation.

Are interest rates going to drop in 2024? ›

Interest rates have held steady since July 2023.

The Fed raised the rate 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023 to combat ongoing inflation. After its December 2023 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) predicted making three quarter-point cuts by the end of 2024 to lower the federal funds rate to 4.6%.

How does interest rate affect mortgage payments? ›

In general, shorter-term loans, like a 15-year mortgage, come with a lower interest rate, but have higher monthly payments. Longer-term loans, such as 30-year mortgages, come with a higher rate, but lower monthly payments.

Where will mortgage rates be in 10 years? ›

According to their latest forecast for 30-year mortgage rates in October 2023, they expect them to range from 7.40% to 7.86%, with an average of 7.63%. They also predict that mortgage rates will peak at 9.41% in May 2024, before gradually declining to 3.67% by November 2027.

Will mortgage rates go down in 2026? ›

10-year treasury yield forecast in the U.S. 2023-2026. The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent.

Is it better to buy a house when interest rates are high or low? ›

Ideally, you'll be able to buy when both interest rates and home prices are low. If that's not possible, calculate both the short- and long-term costs of a lower interest rate versus a lower purchase price.

How much does a 1% interest rate affect a mortgage? ›

Mortgage rates increase in increments of 0.125%, and although one percent may seem like an insignificant amount, a quick glance at the numbers would tell you otherwise. As a rough rule of thumb, every 1% increase in your interest rate lowers your purchase price you can afford for the same payment by about 10%.

What is the monthly payment on a 200000 mortgage? ›

We're here to help!

As far as the simple math goes, a $200,000 home loan at a 7% interest rate on a 30-year term will give you a $1,330.60 monthly payment. That $200K monthly mortgage payment includes the principal and interest.

What are interest rates expected to do in 2024? ›

30-year mortgage rates are currently expected to fall to somewhere between 6.1% and 6.4% in 2024. Instead of waiting for rates to drop, homebuyers should consider buying now and refinancing later to avoid increased competition next year.

What is the interest prediction for 2024? ›

Financial markets are currently predicting the first cut in interest rates will be in June 2024, falling to around 3% by the end of 2025, according to the latest forecasts from Capital Economics. As a general rule: if interest rates fall, the mortgage rate forecast would be for mortgage rates to fall too.

What could interest rates look like in 2024? ›

That means the mortgage rates will likely be in the 6% to 7% range for most of the year.” Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). MBA's baseline forecast is for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to end 2024 at 6.1% and reach 5.5% at the end of 2025 as Treasury rates decline and the spread narrows.

What will interest rates look like in 2025? ›

Mortgage rates are going to stay above 6% through 2025, according to estimates from Goldman Sachs. Goldman said the decline in mortgage rates should offer marginal improvements in housing affordability. The average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.62% last week after hitting a cycle-high of 7.8%.

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